Anthropic’s aggressive IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and an active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, underpin the 94.8% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion amid strong Claude adoption, with underwriters advancing roadshow planning and credit facilities. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid heightened AI safety priorities, shifting any debut to 2027. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though Anthropic could still face slippage from regulatory reviews or market volatility, while OpenAI might accelerate if safety concerns ease faster than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,245 Vol.
$385,245 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,245 Vol.
$385,245 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s aggressive IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and an active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, underpin the 94.8% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion amid strong Claude adoption, with underwriters advancing roadshow planning and credit facilities. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid heightened AI safety priorities, shifting any debut to 2027. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though Anthropic could still face slippage from regulatory reviews or market volatility, while OpenAI might accelerate if safety concerns ease faster than expected.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$385,245End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s aggressive IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and an active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, underpin the 94.8% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion amid strong Claude adoption, with underwriters advancing roadshow planning and credit facilities. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid heightened AI safety priorities, shifting any debut to 2027. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though Anthropic could still face slippage from regulatory reviews or market volatility, while OpenAI might accelerate if safety concerns ease faster than expected.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$385,245End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s aggressive IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and an active push toward a November 2026 Nasdaq listing at a potential $2 trillion valuation, underpin the 94.8% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion amid strong Claude adoption, with underwriters advancing roadshow planning and credit facilities. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid heightened AI safety priorities, shifting any debut to 2027. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though Anthropic could still face slippage from regulatory reviews or market volatility, while OpenAI might accelerate if safety concerns ease faster than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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