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Finance·Sam Altman

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

icon for How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
Finance·Sam Altman

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

<$30B 29.0%

$80B–$90B 21.3%

$40B–$50B 20.6%

$100B+ 12%

Polymarket
NEW

<$30B 29.0%

$80B–$90B 21.3%

$40B–$50B 20.6%

$100B+ 12%

Polymarket
NEW

<$30B

$603 Vol.

29%

$30B–$40B

$463 Vol.

4%

$40B–$50B

$1,621 Vol.

24%

$50B–$60B

$1,151 Vol.

6%

$60B–$70B

$499 Vol.

8%

$70B–$80B

$489 Vol.

9%

$80B–$90B

$448 Vol.

21%

$90B–$100B

$306 Vol.

3%

$100B+

$637 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s delayed IPO timeline to 2027, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion valuation target well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the capital raise. The confidential S-1 filing in June and the missed September 2026 window, confirmed by CFO Sarah Friar’s August statements, reflect caution amid post-SpaceX market volatility and the need to demonstrate revenue inflection beyond the current ~$40 billion annualized run rate. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s $965 billion valuation and the broader AI IPO pipeline heightens sensitivity to float size, with underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley likely calibrating the offering to balance dilution against investor absorption. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 updates or quarterly revenue disclosures that could clarify path-to-profitability metrics and influence the final raise range.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.

Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.

If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,217
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s delayed IPO timeline to 2027, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion valuation target well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for the capital raise. The confidential S-1 filing in June and the missed September 2026 window, confirmed by CFO Sarah Friar’s August statements, reflect caution amid post-SpaceX market volatility and the need to demonstrate revenue inflection beyond the current ~$40 billion annualized run rate. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s $965 billion valuation and the broader AI IPO pipeline heightens sensitivity to float size, with underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley likely calibrating the offering to balance dilution against investor absorption. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 updates or quarterly revenue disclosures that could clarify path-to-profitability metrics and influence the final raise range.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.

Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.

If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,217
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$30B" at 29%, followed by "$40B–$50B" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?" is "<$30B" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$40B–$50B" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.