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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$802,485 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$802,485 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$115,933 Vol.

10%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$362,804 Vol.

9%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$76,649 Vol.

7%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,884 Vol.

6%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$10,051 Vol.

5%

icon for Syria

Syria

$22,317 Vol.

5%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$14,037 Vol.

4%

icon for Iran

Iran

$17,351 Vol.

4%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$20,818 Vol.

4%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$23,577 Vol.

3%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$14,780 Vol.

3%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$21,335 Vol.

3%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$19,782 Vol.

3%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$39,120 Vol.

3%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$13,979 Vol.

3%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$17,067 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment for additional Israeli recognitions by December 31 centers on stalled Saudi normalization talks and incremental Syrian diplomacy.** As of mid-2026, roughly 23–29 UN members still withhold formal recognition, primarily Arab League states and other Muslim-majority countries. Recent developments include Israel and Morocco upgrading ties to full embassies in September 2026 under the Abraham Accords framework, while Syrian authorities under new leadership have pursued security talks that could precede broader recognition. Saudi Arabia remains the highest-profile holdout, with U.S.-linked nuclear and defense discussions tied to recognition but no breakthrough confirmed. Israeli elections in October and ongoing regional security dynamics, including Houthi threats, could influence short-term momentum, though Palestinian statehood preconditions continue to constrain wider Arab normalization.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$802,485
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader sentiment for additional Israeli recognitions by December 31 centers on stalled Saudi normalization talks and incremental Syrian diplomacy.** As of mid-2026, roughly 23–29 UN members still withhold formal recognition, primarily Arab League states and other Muslim-majority countries. Recent developments include Israel and Morocco upgrading ties to full embassies in September 2026 under the Abraham Accords framework, while Syrian authorities under new leadership have pursued security talks that could precede broader recognition. Saudi Arabia remains the highest-profile holdout, with U.S.-linked nuclear and defense discussions tied to recognition but no breakthrough confirmed. Israeli elections in October and ongoing regional security dynamics, including Houthi threats, could influence short-term momentum, though Palestinian statehood preconditions continue to constrain wider Arab normalization.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$802,485
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 10%, followed by "Venezuela" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $802.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Lebanon" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Venezuela" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.