President Donald Trump’s recent statements at a South Florida rally have intensified trader focus on potential US military action against Cuba, including suggestions that warships returning from operations related to Iran could make a stopover near the island to pressure the government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly urged Cubans seeking change to pursue discreet cooperation with the CIA, while the administration continues targeted sanctions on Cuban military-linked entities and maintains economic measures such as fuel supply restrictions. US military planning documents reviewed in September indicate ongoing assessments of support units for Southern Command that could relate to Caribbean contingencies, though no deployment orders have been issued. Cuban officials have rejected external interference, accused the US of threats ahead of UN votes on the embargo, and signaled openness to dialogue on bilateral issues without political system changes. These developments, alongside Trump’s occasional references to reaching a deal instead of force, shape assessments of near-term escalation risks.