**U.S. policy has centered on Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with Washington normalizing diplomatic ties, advancing oil agreements, and backing U.S.-facilitated talks that exclude María Corina Machado’s movement.** This approach prioritizes stability, institutional continuity, and economic cooperation over immediate recognition of opposition figures. Senior administration officials have privately urged Machado to delay her return from exile, and public statements from President Trump have endorsed Rodríguez’s role while framing broader transition talks around the 2015 legislature rather than direct handover to Machado or Edmundo González. Traders assign a 97.3% probability to “No” because no diplomatic signals point to formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt policy reversal ahead of scheduled elections, sustained domestic pressure after Machado’s return, or new congressional or executive actions explicitly elevating her status within the December 31 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
3% chance
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**U.S. policy has centered on Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with Washington normalizing diplomatic ties, advancing oil agreements, and backing U.S.-facilitated talks that exclude María Corina Machado’s movement.** This approach prioritizes stability, institutional continuity, and economic cooperation over immediate recognition of opposition figures. Senior administration officials have privately urged Machado to delay her return from exile, and public statements from President Trump have endorsed Rodríguez’s role while framing broader transition talks around the 2015 legislature rather than direct handover to Machado or Edmundo González. Traders assign a 97.3% probability to “No” because no diplomatic signals point to formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt policy reversal ahead of scheduled elections, sustained domestic pressure after Machado’s return, or new congressional or executive actions explicitly elevating her status within the December 31 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**U.S. policy has centered on Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with Washington normalizing diplomatic ties, advancing oil agreements, and backing U.S.-facilitated talks that exclude María Corina Machado’s movement.** This approach prioritizes stability, institutional continuity, and economic cooperation over immediate recognition of opposition figures. Senior administration officials have privately urged Machado to delay her return from exile, and public statements from President Trump have endorsed Rodríguez’s role while framing broader transition talks around the 2015 legislature rather than direct handover to Machado or Edmundo González. Traders assign a 97.3% probability to “No” because no diplomatic signals point to formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt policy reversal ahead of scheduled elections, sustained domestic pressure after Machado’s return, or new congressional or executive actions explicitly elevating her status within the December 31 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. policy has centered on Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with Washington normalizing diplomatic ties, advancing oil agreements, and backing U.S.-facilitated talks that exclude María Corina Machado’s movement.** This approach prioritizes stability, institutional continuity, and economic cooperation over immediate recognition of opposition figures. Senior administration officials have privately urged Machado to delay her return from exile, and public statements from President Trump have endorsed Rodríguez’s role while framing broader transition talks around the 2015 legislature rather than direct handover to Machado or Edmundo González. Traders assign a 97.3% probability to “No” because no diplomatic signals point to formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Late developments that could still shift odds include an abrupt policy reversal ahead of scheduled elections, sustained domestic pressure after Machado’s return, or new congressional or executive actions explicitly elevating her status within the December 31 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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