**Senate procedural barriers and repeated failed advancement attempts explain the 93.5% implied probability that H.R. 22, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act or SAVE America Act, will not be signed into law in 2026.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and, in later versions, photo identification at the polls, cleared the House in April 2025 (220-208) and again in February 2026 (218-213). However, it has stalled in the Senate, where multiple efforts to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold—including as amendments to DHS funding, reconciliation packages, and the NDAA—failed, often with four Republican senators joining Democrats in opposition. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated he sees insufficient votes to advance the measure and has no immediate plans to schedule it. President Trump has prioritized the legislation, linking it to other bills and urging rule changes, yet these pressures have not altered the Senate outcome. With the session advancing and no new legislative vehicle or vote counts emerging by early September 2026, traders view enactment before year-end as highly unlikely absent a major shift in Senate dynamics.