**New People (NL) leads the market at 87% implied probability for finishing fourth in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.** Partial official counts after the September 18–20 vote place United Russia first with roughly 57–58%, the Communist Party (KPRF) second near 13.8%, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) third around 8.7%, and New People fourth at approximately 7.9%, ahead of A Just Russia – For Truth near 5.1%. Other listed parties trail well below the 5% threshold. Exit polls from VTsIOM aligned closely with these early results, showing the same top-five order. New People's positioning stems from its appeal to younger urban and business-oriented voters as a managed systemic option within the limited field of Kremlin-aligned parties, after genuine opposition such as Yabloko was excluded. With counting ongoing and United Russia on track for a constitutional majority, the ranking appears stable absent major late adjustments in single-mandate districts. Traders price this outcome as the consensus view based on verifiable vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew People (NL) 95%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7%
Civic Platform (GP) <1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
$25,660 Vol.
$25,660 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
New People (NL)
87%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
7%
Civic Platform (GP)
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
United Russia (ER)
<1%
New People (NL) 95%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7%
Civic Platform (GP) <1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
$25,660 Vol.
$25,660 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
New People (NL)
$8,139 Vol.
87%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$4,078 Vol.
7%
Civic Platform (GP)
$1,590 Vol.
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$5,953 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$2,719 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$2,075 Vol.
<1%
United Russia (ER)
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.**New People (NL) leads the market at 87% implied probability for finishing fourth in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.** Partial official counts after the September 18–20 vote place United Russia first with roughly 57–58%, the Communist Party (KPRF) second near 13.8%, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) third around 8.7%, and New People fourth at approximately 7.9%, ahead of A Just Russia – For Truth near 5.1%. Other listed parties trail well below the 5% threshold. Exit polls from VTsIOM aligned closely with these early results, showing the same top-five order.
New People's positioning stems from its appeal to younger urban and business-oriented voters as a managed systemic option within the limited field of Kremlin-aligned parties, after genuine opposition such as Yabloko was excluded. With counting ongoing and United Russia on track for a constitutional majority, the ranking appears stable absent major late adjustments in single-mandate districts. Traders price this outcome as the consensus view based on verifiable vote shares.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET
Volume
$25,660End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.**New People (NL) leads the market at 87% implied probability for finishing fourth in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.** Partial official counts after the September 18–20 vote place United Russia first with roughly 57–58%, the Communist Party (KPRF) second near 13.8%, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) third around 8.7%, and New People fourth at approximately 7.9%, ahead of A Just Russia – For Truth near 5.1%. Other listed parties trail well below the 5% threshold. Exit polls from VTsIOM aligned closely with these early results, showing the same top-five order.
New People's positioning stems from its appeal to younger urban and business-oriented voters as a managed systemic option within the limited field of Kremlin-aligned parties, after genuine opposition such as Yabloko was excluded. With counting ongoing and United Russia on track for a constitutional majority, the ranking appears stable absent major late adjustments in single-mandate districts. Traders price this outcome as the consensus view based on verifiable vote shares.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$25,660End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**New People (NL) leads the market at 87% implied probability for finishing fourth in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election.** Partial official counts after the September 18–20 vote place United Russia first with roughly 57–58%, the Communist Party (KPRF) second near 13.8%, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) third around 8.7%, and New People fourth at approximately 7.9%, ahead of A Just Russia – For Truth near 5.1%. Other listed parties trail well below the 5% threshold. Exit polls from VTsIOM aligned closely with these early results, showing the same top-five order. New People's positioning stems from its appeal to younger urban and business-oriented voters as a managed systemic option within the limited field of Kremlin-aligned parties, after genuine opposition such as Yabloko was excluded. With counting ongoing and United Russia on track for a constitutional majority, the ranking appears stable absent major late adjustments in single-mandate districts. Traders price this outcome as the consensus view based on verifiable vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
93%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
99%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
100%
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