Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a raid in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with pretrial proceedings including an immunity motion whose government response is due in October 2026 and a hearing set for November. A trial is scheduled for June 2027. Recent court activity and August 2026 prison photos confirm continued detention without release or extradition developments. Traders assessing release odds by late 2026 or similar deadlines weigh these procedural timelines, the severity of the charges, and historical patterns of pretrial detention in high-profile federal cases against any potential diplomatic or political shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,689,487 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,689,487 Vol.
December 31
$294,038 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a raid in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with pretrial proceedings including an immunity motion whose government response is due in October 2026 and a hearing set for November. A trial is scheduled for June 2027. Recent court activity and August 2026 prison photos confirm continued detention without release or extradition developments. Traders assessing release odds by late 2026 or similar deadlines weigh these procedural timelines, the severity of the charges, and historical patterns of pretrial detention in high-profile federal cases against any potential diplomatic or political shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,487End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a raid in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with pretrial proceedings including an immunity motion whose government response is due in October 2026 and a hearing set for November. A trial is scheduled for June 2027. Recent court activity and August 2026 prison photos confirm continued detention without release or extradition developments. Traders assessing release odds by late 2026 or similar deadlines weigh these procedural timelines, the severity of the charges, and historical patterns of pretrial detention in high-profile federal cases against any potential diplomatic or political shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,487End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a raid in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with pretrial proceedings including an immunity motion whose government response is due in October 2026 and a hearing set for November. A trial is scheduled for June 2027. Recent court activity and August 2026 prison photos confirm continued detention without release or extradition developments. Traders assessing release odds by late 2026 or similar deadlines weigh these procedural timelines, the severity of the charges, and historical patterns of pretrial detention in high-profile federal cases against any potential diplomatic or political shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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