Persistent Atlantic low-pressure systems and southerly winds are sustaining above-normal temperatures across southern Finland, keeping Helsinki's September 26 overnight minimum forecast near 12–13 °C according to the latest ECMWF and GFS runs. This mild maritime flow has held the market-implied probability of a sub-7 °C low near 50 % while also capping the chance of a 16 °C-or-higher reading at 49 %, reflecting genuine model spread on whether a transient northerly shift can arrive before dawn. Historical climatology places the typical low around 8 °C, so current guidance sits well above baseline; traders are therefore weighting the next 48-hour model updates and any rapid changes in 850 hPa thickness that could tip the balance toward either cooler or warmer resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 26?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 26?
16°C or higher 98%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
98%
16°C or higher 98%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent Atlantic low-pressure systems and southerly winds are sustaining above-normal temperatures across southern Finland, keeping Helsinki's September 26 overnight minimum forecast near 12–13 °C according to the latest ECMWF and GFS runs. This mild maritime flow has held the market-implied probability of a sub-7 °C low near 50 % while also capping the chance of a 16 °C-or-higher reading at 49 %, reflecting genuine model spread on whether a transient northerly shift can arrive before dawn. Historical climatology places the typical low around 8 °C, so current guidance sits well above baseline; traders are therefore weighting the next 48-hour model updates and any rapid changes in 850 hPa thickness that could tip the balance toward either cooler or warmer resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent Atlantic low-pressure systems and southerly winds are sustaining above-normal temperatures across southern Finland, keeping Helsinki's September 26 overnight minimum forecast near 12–13 °C according to the latest ECMWF and GFS runs. This mild maritime flow has held the market-implied probability of a sub-7 °C low near 50 % while also capping the chance of a 16 °C-or-higher reading at 49 %, reflecting genuine model spread on whether a transient northerly shift can arrive before dawn. Historical climatology places the typical low around 8 °C, so current guidance sits well above baseline; traders are therefore weighting the next 48-hour model updates and any rapid changes in 850 hPa thickness that could tip the balance toward either cooler or warmer resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47de9d...Persistent Atlantic low-pressure systems and southerly winds are sustaining above-normal temperatures across southern Finland, keeping Helsinki's September 26 overnight minimum forecast near 12–13 °C according to the latest ECMWF and GFS runs. This mild maritime flow has held the market-implied probability of a sub-7 °C low near 50 % while also capping the chance of a 16 °C-or-higher reading at 49 %, reflecting genuine model spread on whether a transient northerly shift can arrive before dawn. Historical climatology places the typical low around 8 °C, so current guidance sits well above baseline; traders are therefore weighting the next 48-hour model updates and any rapid changes in 850 hPa thickness that could tip the balance toward either cooler or warmer resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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