Recent official forecasts and observational data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate overnight lows in Busan settling near 21–22 °C on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies after daytime rain, and dew points around 17–19 °C. These conditions align with typical mid-September climatology for the region, where average minimums hover near 20 °C amid transitional autumn patterns. Market-implied odds heavily favor 21 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential overnight, with no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiational effects expected to push readings lower. Minor spreads to 18–19 °C reflect residual uncertainty in localized urban heat-island influences or exact timing of clearing, while probabilities below 17 °C or above 22 °C remain negligible absent major forecast revisions. Updated model runs and KMA briefings through the evening will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Busan on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Busan on September 18?
21°C 100%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$495 Vol.
$495 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
21°C 100%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$495 Vol.
$495 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
$31 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C
$58 Vol.
No
21°C
$205 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$91 Vol.
No
23°C
$50 Vol.
No
24°C
$15 Vol.
No
25°C
$15 Vol.
No
26°C
$15 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate overnight lows in Busan settling near 21–22 °C on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies after daytime rain, and dew points around 17–19 °C. These conditions align with typical mid-September climatology for the region, where average minimums hover near 20 °C amid transitional autumn patterns. Market-implied odds heavily favor 21 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential overnight, with no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiational effects expected to push readings lower. Minor spreads to 18–19 °C reflect residual uncertainty in localized urban heat-island influences or exact timing of clearing, while probabilities below 17 °C or above 22 °C remain negligible absent major forecast revisions. Updated model runs and KMA briefings through the evening will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$495End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate overnight lows in Busan settling near 21–22 °C on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies after daytime rain, and dew points around 17–19 °C. These conditions align with typical mid-September climatology for the region, where average minimums hover near 20 °C amid transitional autumn patterns. Market-implied odds heavily favor 21 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential overnight, with no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiational effects expected to push readings lower. Minor spreads to 18–19 °C reflect residual uncertainty in localized urban heat-island influences or exact timing of clearing, while probabilities below 17 °C or above 22 °C remain negligible absent major forecast revisions. Updated model runs and KMA briefings through the evening will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$495End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent official forecasts and observational data from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate overnight lows in Busan settling near 21–22 °C on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies after daytime rain, and dew points around 17–19 °C. These conditions align with typical mid-September climatology for the region, where average minimums hover near 20 °C amid transitional autumn patterns. Market-implied odds heavily favor 21 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited cooling potential overnight, with no significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiational effects expected to push readings lower. Minor spreads to 18–19 °C reflect residual uncertainty in localized urban heat-island influences or exact timing of clearing, while probabilities below 17 °C or above 22 °C remain negligible absent major forecast revisions. Updated model runs and KMA briefings through the evening will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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