The Israeli Central Elections Committee received petitions seeking to disqualify the Democrats party ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, yet traders assign the “effectively banned” outcome only a 3.7 percent chance. Such petitions require Supreme Court ratification, and prior cycles show most challenges fail on threshold or substantive grounds. The Democrats completed candidate primaries in July, submitted their slate by the September deadline, and remain active in coalition negotiations and surplus-vote agreements. Recent polling continues to project the party clearing the electoral threshold and participating in post-election government formation talks. A late court reversal or unforeseen procedural ruling could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized in the final weeks before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
1% chance
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NEW
Oct 27, 2026
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Israeli Central Elections Committee received petitions seeking to disqualify the Democrats party ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, yet traders assign the “effectively banned” outcome only a 3.7 percent chance. Such petitions require Supreme Court ratification, and prior cycles show most challenges fail on threshold or substantive grounds. The Democrats completed candidate primaries in July, submitted their slate by the September deadline, and remain active in coalition negotiations and surplus-vote agreements. Recent polling continues to project the party clearing the electoral threshold and participating in post-election government formation talks. A late court reversal or unforeseen procedural ruling could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized in the final weeks before the vote.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$204End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Israeli Central Elections Committee received petitions seeking to disqualify the Democrats party ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, yet traders assign the “effectively banned” outcome only a 3.7 percent chance. Such petitions require Supreme Court ratification, and prior cycles show most challenges fail on threshold or substantive grounds. The Democrats completed candidate primaries in July, submitted their slate by the September deadline, and remain active in coalition negotiations and surplus-vote agreements. Recent polling continues to project the party clearing the electoral threshold and participating in post-election government formation talks. A late court reversal or unforeseen procedural ruling could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized in the final weeks before the vote.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The Israeli Central Elections Committee received petitions seeking to disqualify the Democrats party ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, yet traders assign the “effectively banned” outcome only a 3.7 percent chance. Such petitions require Supreme Court ratification, and prior cycles show most challenges fail on threshold or substantive grounds. The Democrats completed candidate primaries in July, submitted their slate by the September deadline, and remain active in coalition negotiations and surplus-vote agreements. Recent polling continues to project the party clearing the electoral threshold and participating in post-election government formation talks. A late court reversal or unforeseen procedural ruling could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized in the final weeks before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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