Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted 18-5 on September 23 to disqualify the Joint List—an alliance of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad—from the October 27 Knesset election, citing Basic Law provisions on support for armed struggle or rejection of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. The attorney general’s office deemed the evidence insufficient to meet the legal threshold, and the Supreme Court, which has overturned nearly all prior committee disqualifications of Arab lists in recent cycles, is scheduled to review the matter before the vote. Traders assign a 95.4% probability against an effective ban because the court’s precedent and procedural timeline make reversal the dominant outcome. Late shifts could occur only if the court issues an unusual upholding or if unforeseen legal maneuvers alter the lists after appeals.