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icon for IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
Politics·Negotiation Topics

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

icon for IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
Politics·Negotiation Topics

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

$374,320 Vol.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$374,320 Vol.

Polymarket

October 31

$83,994 Vol.

5%

December 31

$36,927 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic tensions between Iran and the IAEA continue to block inspector access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz sites, with no verification activities conducted at these facilities since June 2025 following U.S.-Israeli strikes. An interim June 2026 understanding briefly raised expectations for resumed oversight of enriched uranium stockpiles and downblending, yet Iran has conditioned any visits on a final agreement and sanctions relief, leading to contradictory statements from both sides. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first in two decades—highlights the impasse, citing the agency's inability to verify material location, composition, or enrichment activities amid satellite-observed site activity. Negotiations on modalities remain stalled, with upcoming UNSC discussions and any bilateral talks likely to determine whether access occurs in the near term.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$374,320
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic tensions between Iran and the IAEA continue to block inspector access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz sites, with no verification activities conducted at these facilities since June 2025 following U.S.-Israeli strikes. An interim June 2026 understanding briefly raised expectations for resumed oversight of enriched uranium stockpiles and downblending, yet Iran has conditioned any visits on a final agreement and sanctions relief, leading to contradictory statements from both sides. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first in two decades—highlights the impasse, citing the agency's inability to verify material location, composition, or enrichment activities amid satellite-observed site activity. Negotiations on modalities remain stalled, with upcoming UNSC discussions and any bilateral talks likely to determine whether access occurs in the near term.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$374,320
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 13%, followed by "October 31" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?" has generated $374.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?" is "December 31" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.