Recent forecast models and observational data from agencies tracking Chengdu indicate a daytime high of 21°C on October 5, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and suppressed solar heating that limits warming. Multiple meteorological sources align on this range, with highs projected between 19–22°C amid high humidity and light winds, consistent with typical early-October patterns where precipitation curbs peak temperatures. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C reflects this strong alignment in current guidance, though resolution depends on official station measurements. A rapid clearing of clouds or reduced rainfall could allow greater insolation and push readings to 23°C or higher, introducing the main uncertainty.