Current forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models converge on a daytime maximum of 23°C in Chengdu on October 9 under persistent overcast skies, light rain, and northerly flow that limits insolation and advects cooler air. This aligns with early-October climatology, where average highs range 22–24°C amid transitional monsoon patterns. Market-implied odds reflect high model consensus and recent observational trends showing no warming anomalies. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud dissipation or revised boundary-layer heating not captured in current runs, though late-day data releases from the China Meteorological Administration are unlikely to alter the outcome materially.