Current forecast consensus from regional models points to a daily maximum near 24–25°C in Busan on October 4, driven by persistent cloud cover and moderate northeast winds that limit daytime heating while keeping conditions close to early-October climatology. Light rain or drizzle expected during morning hours could further suppress the peak by reducing insolation, whereas any afternoon clearing would favor the upper end of the range. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C and 25°C because ensemble guidance clusters there, with lower odds on 23°C reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind strength; historical averages near 22.5°C provide context but recent model runs have trended slightly warmer. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.