Official observations from Chinese meteorological stations and regional models confirm Chengdu's maximum temperature reached 22°C on October 2 amid persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and high humidity near 65-90%, limiting daytime heating consistent with early-autumn climatology. Multiple real-time sources, including hourly profiles peaking at or near this threshold without exceeding it significantly, align with trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this exact outcome. Minor variations in station siting or rounding conventions represent the primary remaining uncertainty, though current data streams show no realistic path to revision.