The market's full consensus on 21°C reflects current observational data and forecast models from agencies like KNMI showing Amsterdam's October 1 maximum stabilizing near this level under mild, mostly overcast conditions with light rain and southerly flow. Afternoon peaks around 20°C, consistent with early-autumn patterns slightly above the 17°C historical average high, have driven trader alignment as the day progressed without notable warming spikes. This skin-in-the-game assessment accounts for typical model uncertainty ranges in short-term temperature guidance. Final station readings could shift the outcome only if unforecasted clear skies or altered wind patterns produce a late surge above 21°C.