Anthropic’s Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely followed by Opus 5 and Mythos 5 in the mid-64% range as of early September 2026. This positions the company ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro near 59%, reflecting strong performance on the 2,500 expert-authored questions spanning mathematics, sciences, and humanities. The benchmark’s design resists quick saturation, so traders are tracking incremental gains from reasoning-focused updates, tool integration, and new frontier releases expected before year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind could narrow the gap if upcoming models demonstrate better multi-step reasoning or calibration on graduate-level tasks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$64,860 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
59%
65%+
30%
70%+
16%
75%+
13%
80%+
7%
90%+
4%
$64,860 Vol.
60%+
$35,947 Vol.
59%
65%+
$16,107 Vol.
30%
70%+
$5,879 Vol.
16%
75%+
$3,571 Vol.
13%
80%+
$1,151 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,206 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely followed by Opus 5 and Mythos 5 in the mid-64% range as of early September 2026. This positions the company ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro near 59%, reflecting strong performance on the 2,500 expert-authored questions spanning mathematics, sciences, and humanities. The benchmark’s design resists quick saturation, so traders are tracking incremental gains from reasoning-focused updates, tool integration, and new frontier releases expected before year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind could narrow the gap if upcoming models demonstrate better multi-step reasoning or calibration on graduate-level tasks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$64,860End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely followed by Opus 5 and Mythos 5 in the mid-64% range as of early September 2026. This positions the company ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro near 59%, reflecting strong performance on the 2,500 expert-authored questions spanning mathematics, sciences, and humanities. The benchmark’s design resists quick saturation, so traders are tracking incremental gains from reasoning-focused updates, tool integration, and new frontier releases expected before year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind could narrow the gap if upcoming models demonstrate better multi-step reasoning or calibration on graduate-level tasks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$64,860End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely followed by Opus 5 and Mythos 5 in the mid-64% range as of early September 2026. This positions the company ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 Pro near 59%, reflecting strong performance on the 2,500 expert-authored questions spanning mathematics, sciences, and humanities. The benchmark’s design resists quick saturation, so traders are tracking incremental gains from reasoning-focused updates, tool integration, and new frontier releases expected before year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google DeepMind could narrow the gap if upcoming models demonstrate better multi-step reasoning or calibration on graduate-level tasks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
84%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
44%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
89%
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Frequently Asked Questions