Kate O’Flynn’s breakout performance as the socially awkward, scene-stealing Patricia in Apple TV+’s buzzy horror-comedy “Widow’s Bay” drives the 78.5% implied probability for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. The freshman series earned 19 Emmy nominations after strong spring buzz and critical acclaim for O’Flynn’s standout episodes, positioning her as the clear frontrunner among first-time nominees. Trader consensus reflects her momentum against returning winner Hannah Einbinder’s repeat bid in “Hacks”’ final season, while a potential vote split with co-nominee Dale Dickey and lower profiles for Janelle James, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Jessica Williams keep the field wide but secondary. The Sept. 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series
Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” 75.8%
Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks” 18%
Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary” 2.7%
Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” 2.5%
$36,780 Vol.
$36,780 Vol.
Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay”
76%
Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks”
18%
Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary”
3%
Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
3%
Dale Dickey – “Widow’s Bay”
1%
Jessica Williams – “Shrinking”
1%
Megan Stalter – “Hacks”
1%
Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” 75.8%
Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks” 18%
Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary” 2.7%
Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” 2.5%
$36,780 Vol.
$36,780 Vol.
Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay”
76%
Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks”
18%
Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary”
3%
Michelle Pfeiffer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
3%
Dale Dickey – “Widow’s Bay”
1%
Jessica Williams – “Shrinking”
1%
Megan Stalter – “Hacks”
1%
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Kate O’Flynn’s breakout performance as the socially awkward, scene-stealing Patricia in Apple TV+’s buzzy horror-comedy “Widow’s Bay” drives the 78.5% implied probability for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. The freshman series earned 19 Emmy nominations after strong spring buzz and critical acclaim for O’Flynn’s standout episodes, positioning her as the clear frontrunner among first-time nominees. Trader consensus reflects her momentum against returning winner Hannah Einbinder’s repeat bid in “Hacks”’ final season, while a potential vote split with co-nominee Dale Dickey and lower profiles for Janelle James, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Jessica Williams keep the field wide but secondary. The Sept. 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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