Widow’s Bay’s surge to an 85% implied probability stems from its breakout April 2026 debut as a horror-comedy hybrid that earned 19 Emmy nominations and then dominated the recent Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins, including key technical categories, casting, and a guest actress award. This late-breaking momentum, fueled by strong word-of-mouth, critical praise for its tonal balance and ensemble led by Matthew Rhys, has shifted trader consensus away from Hacks despite the veteran HBO Max series’ record 24 nominations and status as a five-time contender wrapping its run. With the September 14 ceremony imminent, Hacks retains sentimental support at 14%, while other nominees like The Bear and Abbott Elementary remain long shots under 2% amid the frontrunner dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series
“Widow’s Bay” 85%
“Hacks” 14.0%
“The Bear” 1.2%
“Only Murders in the Building” 1.1%
$113,397 Vol.
$113,397 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“Widow’s Bay”
85%
“Hacks”
14%
“The Bear”
1%
“Only Murders in the Building”
1%
“Shrinking”
1%
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
1%
“Nobody Wants This”
1%
“Abbott Elementary”
<1%
“Widow’s Bay” 85%
“Hacks” 14.0%
“The Bear” 1.2%
“Only Murders in the Building” 1.1%
$113,397 Vol.
$113,397 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“Widow’s Bay”
$44,682 Vol.
85%
“Hacks”
$21,059 Vol.
14%
“The Bear”
$8,307 Vol.
1%
“Only Murders in the Building”
$6,409 Vol.
1%
“Shrinking”
$8,438 Vol.
1%
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
$7,362 Vol.
1%
“Nobody Wants This”
$9,496 Vol.
1%
“Abbott Elementary”
$7,644 Vol.
<1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Widow’s Bay’s surge to an 85% implied probability stems from its breakout April 2026 debut as a horror-comedy hybrid that earned 19 Emmy nominations and then dominated the recent Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins, including key technical categories, casting, and a guest actress award. This late-breaking momentum, fueled by strong word-of-mouth, critical praise for its tonal balance and ensemble led by Matthew Rhys, has shifted trader consensus away from Hacks despite the veteran HBO Max series’ record 24 nominations and status as a five-time contender wrapping its run. With the September 14 ceremony imminent, Hacks retains sentimental support at 14%, while other nominees like The Bear and Abbott Elementary remain long shots under 2% amid the frontrunner dynamics.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$113,397End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Widow’s Bay’s surge to an 85% implied probability stems from its breakout April 2026 debut as a horror-comedy hybrid that earned 19 Emmy nominations and then dominated the recent Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins, including key technical categories, casting, and a guest actress award. This late-breaking momentum, fueled by strong word-of-mouth, critical praise for its tonal balance and ensemble led by Matthew Rhys, has shifted trader consensus away from Hacks despite the veteran HBO Max series’ record 24 nominations and status as a five-time contender wrapping its run. With the September 14 ceremony imminent, Hacks retains sentimental support at 14%, while other nominees like The Bear and Abbott Elementary remain long shots under 2% amid the frontrunner dynamics.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$113,397End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Widow’s Bay’s surge to an 85% implied probability stems from its breakout April 2026 debut as a horror-comedy hybrid that earned 19 Emmy nominations and then dominated the recent Creative Arts Emmys with eight wins, including key technical categories, casting, and a guest actress award. This late-breaking momentum, fueled by strong word-of-mouth, critical praise for its tonal balance and ensemble led by Matthew Rhys, has shifted trader consensus away from Hacks despite the veteran HBO Max series’ record 24 nominations and status as a five-time contender wrapping its run. With the September 14 ceremony imminent, Hacks retains sentimental support at 14%, while other nominees like The Bear and Abbott Elementary remain long shots under 2% amid the frontrunner dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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