Several open-seat and incumbent races stand out as potential nail-biters due to narrow polling margins, toss-up or lean ratings from forecasters like Cook and Sabato, and recent primary outcomes that left both parties with viable nominees. Texas shows polls as tight as 51-49 between incumbent Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, while Ohio’s open contest between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy has produced statistical dead heats. Georgia’s term-limited vacancy and Alaska’s shift to toss-up status after its primary have drawn attention for similar reasons, alongside Nevada’s endangered Republican incumbent. Traders price these states highest because their partisan leans, candidate quality, and limited polling averages suggest the smallest likely victory margins on November 3, with consolidation possible around any late shifts in turnout or national conditions that further compress the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 14.9%
Ohio 13.1%
Alaska 13.1%
Georgia 12.3%
$16,598 Vol.
$16,598 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Ohio
13%
Alaska
13%
Georgia
12%
Iowa
9%
Nevada
8%
Florida
7%
Kansas
6%
Oregon
5%
Vermont
4%
Michigan
4%
Minnesota
4%
Colorado
4%
New Hampshire
3%
Wisconsin
3%
New Mexico
3%
Arizona
3%
Maine
1%
Texas 14.9%
Ohio 13.1%
Alaska 13.1%
Georgia 12.3%
$16,598 Vol.
$16,598 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,703 Vol.
15%
Ohio
$823 Vol.
13%
Alaska
$269 Vol.
13%
Georgia
$995 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,859 Vol.
9%
Nevada
$2,979 Vol.
8%
Florida
$335 Vol.
7%
Kansas
$3,184 Vol.
6%
Oregon
$336 Vol.
5%
Vermont
$186 Vol.
4%
Michigan
$339 Vol.
4%
Minnesota
$319 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$263 Vol.
4%
New Hampshire
$539 Vol.
3%
Wisconsin
$1,498 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$308 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$297 Vol.
3%
Maine
$365 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and incumbent races stand out as potential nail-biters due to narrow polling margins, toss-up or lean ratings from forecasters like Cook and Sabato, and recent primary outcomes that left both parties with viable nominees. Texas shows polls as tight as 51-49 between incumbent Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, while Ohio’s open contest between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy has produced statistical dead heats. Georgia’s term-limited vacancy and Alaska’s shift to toss-up status after its primary have drawn attention for similar reasons, alongside Nevada’s endangered Republican incumbent. Traders price these states highest because their partisan leans, candidate quality, and limited polling averages suggest the smallest likely victory margins on November 3, with consolidation possible around any late shifts in turnout or national conditions that further compress the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$16,598End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and incumbent races stand out as potential nail-biters due to narrow polling margins, toss-up or lean ratings from forecasters like Cook and Sabato, and recent primary outcomes that left both parties with viable nominees. Texas shows polls as tight as 51-49 between incumbent Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, while Ohio’s open contest between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy has produced statistical dead heats. Georgia’s term-limited vacancy and Alaska’s shift to toss-up status after its primary have drawn attention for similar reasons, alongside Nevada’s endangered Republican incumbent. Traders price these states highest because their partisan leans, candidate quality, and limited polling averages suggest the smallest likely victory margins on November 3, with consolidation possible around any late shifts in turnout or national conditions that further compress the field.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,598End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open-seat and incumbent races stand out as potential nail-biters due to narrow polling margins, toss-up or lean ratings from forecasters like Cook and Sabato, and recent primary outcomes that left both parties with viable nominees. Texas shows polls as tight as 51-49 between incumbent Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, while Ohio’s open contest between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy has produced statistical dead heats. Georgia’s term-limited vacancy and Alaska’s shift to toss-up status after its primary have drawn attention for similar reasons, alongside Nevada’s endangered Republican incumbent. Traders price these states highest because their partisan leans, candidate quality, and limited polling averages suggest the smallest likely victory margins on November 3, with consolidation possible around any late shifts in turnout or national conditions that further compress the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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