Recent polling in key 2026 Senate battlegrounds shows several races clustered within narrow margins, including Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Maine (Jackson vs. Collins), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), Ohio, and North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley). These contests feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics, with analysts rating multiple as toss-ups. Recent primary resolutions and candidate positioning have kept voter preferences fluid in these states, while broader forecasts now treat Senate control as highly competitive. Traders monitoring these races focus on turnout patterns, swing voter shifts, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election that could compress or widen final margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
53%
Maine
21%
Texas
19%
Michigan
17%
Alaska
17%
New Hampshire
16%
Minnesota
11%
Georgia
10%
North Carolina
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Iowa
37%
Nebraska
48%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,911 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Vol.
53%
Maine
$18 Vol.
21%
Texas
$52 Vol.
19%
Michigan
$177 Vol.
17%
Alaska
$208 Vol.
17%
New Hampshire
$267 Vol.
16%
Minnesota
$109 Vol.
11%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$189 Vol.
7%
New Mexico
$274 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Montana
$154 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
2%
Iowa
$100 Vol.
37%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
48%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
46%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in key 2026 Senate battlegrounds shows several races clustered within narrow margins, including Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Maine (Jackson vs. Collins), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), Ohio, and North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley). These contests feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics, with analysts rating multiple as toss-ups. Recent primary resolutions and candidate positioning have kept voter preferences fluid in these states, while broader forecasts now treat Senate control as highly competitive. Traders monitoring these races focus on turnout patterns, swing voter shifts, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election that could compress or widen final margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,911End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in key 2026 Senate battlegrounds shows several races clustered within narrow margins, including Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Maine (Jackson vs. Collins), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), Ohio, and North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley). These contests feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics, with analysts rating multiple as toss-ups. Recent primary resolutions and candidate positioning have kept voter preferences fluid in these states, while broader forecasts now treat Senate control as highly competitive. Traders monitoring these races focus on turnout patterns, swing voter shifts, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election that could compress or widen final margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,911End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling in key 2026 Senate battlegrounds shows several races clustered within narrow margins, including Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), Maine (Jackson vs. Collins), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), Ohio, and North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley). These contests feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics, with analysts rating multiple as toss-ups. Recent primary resolutions and candidate positioning have kept voter preferences fluid in these states, while broader forecasts now treat Senate control as highly competitive. Traders monitoring these races focus on turnout patterns, swing voter shifts, and any late-cycle developments before the November 3 election that could compress or widen final margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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