**Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors levels at or above 1,600 ARS per dollar (66% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual peso depreciation.** The current official rate hovers near 1,530 amid a managed float or crawling-band regime that has delivered relative stability in recent months. With year-over-year inflation near 33–34% and consensus forecasts for 25–30% through year-end, the policy framework points to ongoing nominal weakening to preserve competitiveness and support reserve accumulation. Strong export flows from energy and agriculture have aided reserve rebuilding, yet the inflation differential versus the U.S. and the authorities’ preference for a controlled crawl keep the market pricing in further upside to the rate. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints, BCRA reserve targets, and any adjustments to the exchange-rate band ahead of the December close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1600.00+ 65%
1400.00–1449.99 16.9%
1550.00–1599.99 16.5%
1300.00–1349.99 9.3%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
3%
1250.00–1299.99
9%
1300.00–1349.99
9%
1350.00–1399.99
9%
1400.00–1449.99
10%
1450.00–1499.99
9%
1500.00–1549.99
9%
1550.00–1599.99
16%
1600.00+
65%
1600.00+ 65%
1400.00–1449.99 16.9%
1550.00–1599.99 16.5%
1300.00–1349.99 9.3%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
$544 Vol.
3%
1250.00–1299.99
$955 Vol.
9%
1300.00–1349.99
$826 Vol.
9%
1350.00–1399.99
$910 Vol.
9%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,252 Vol.
10%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,294 Vol.
9%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,359 Vol.
9%
1550.00–1599.99
$779 Vol.
16%
1600.00+
$1,944 Vol.
65%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors levels at or above 1,600 ARS per dollar (66% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual peso depreciation.**
The current official rate hovers near 1,530 amid a managed float or crawling-band regime that has delivered relative stability in recent months. With year-over-year inflation near 33–34% and consensus forecasts for 25–30% through year-end, the policy framework points to ongoing nominal weakening to preserve competitiveness and support reserve accumulation. Strong export flows from energy and agriculture have aided reserve rebuilding, yet the inflation differential versus the U.S. and the authorities’ preference for a controlled crawl keep the market pricing in further upside to the rate. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints, BCRA reserve targets, and any adjustments to the exchange-rate band ahead of the December close.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors levels at or above 1,600 ARS per dollar (66% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual peso depreciation.**
The current official rate hovers near 1,530 amid a managed float or crawling-band regime that has delivered relative stability in recent months. With year-over-year inflation near 33–34% and consensus forecasts for 25–30% through year-end, the policy framework points to ongoing nominal weakening to preserve competitiveness and support reserve accumulation. Strong export flows from energy and agriculture have aided reserve rebuilding, yet the inflation differential versus the U.S. and the authorities’ preference for a controlled crawl keep the market pricing in further upside to the rate. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints, BCRA reserve targets, and any adjustments to the exchange-rate band ahead of the December close.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment on Argentina’s official USD exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors levels at or above 1,600 ARS per dollar (66% implied probability), reflecting expectations of continued gradual peso depreciation.** The current official rate hovers near 1,530 amid a managed float or crawling-band regime that has delivered relative stability in recent months. With year-over-year inflation near 33–34% and consensus forecasts for 25–30% through year-end, the policy framework points to ongoing nominal weakening to preserve competitiveness and support reserve accumulation. Strong export flows from energy and agriculture have aided reserve rebuilding, yet the inflation differential versus the U.S. and the authorities’ preference for a controlled crawl keep the market pricing in further upside to the rate. Key near-term catalysts include monthly inflation prints, BCRA reserve targets, and any adjustments to the exchange-rate band ahead of the December close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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