Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior PLA and civilian officials through 2025–2026, underpins traders’ 96.2% consensus against his removal before 2027. Term limits were abolished in 2018, and no successor has been positioned ahead of the 21st Party Congress expected late next year, where analysts anticipate Xi will pursue a fourth term. Recent developments, including ongoing anti-corruption campaigns that have hollowed out the Central Military Commission while leaving Xi as the unchallenged chairman, signal continuity rather than transition. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, an unforeseen elite realignment at the congress, or a major policy failure prompting internal pressure, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current structure of power.