Russian forces continue incremental advances across Donetsk Oblast in 2026, relying on glide bombs, artillery, and infantry assaults to pressure Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and adjacent sectors, yet ISW assessments show actual territorial gains far below Russian Ministry of Defense claims. Kucheriv Yar, a small village liberated by Ukrainian paratroopers in October 2025 with over 50 Russian troops captured, remains under Ukrainian control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities stay low for near-term Russian recapture—around 5% by late August and 29% by October 31—reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience, including Operation Vivaldi counteractions north of Lyman that disrupted Russian encirclement attempts, combined with Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strikes degrading Russian logistics and air defenses. Scheduled events such as ongoing frontline reporting cycles and potential winter conditions could influence momentum, while any confirmed ISW map update shading the specified intersection red would trigger market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Rusia capturará a Kucheriv Yar para...?
¿Rusia capturará a Kucheriv Yar para...?
$148,368 Vol.
31 oct 2026
31 de octubre
12%
$148,368 Vol.
31 de octubre
$17,002 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances across Donetsk Oblast in 2026, relying on glide bombs, artillery, and infantry assaults to pressure Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and adjacent sectors, yet ISW assessments show actual territorial gains far below Russian Ministry of Defense claims. Kucheriv Yar, a small village liberated by Ukrainian paratroopers in October 2025 with over 50 Russian troops captured, remains under Ukrainian control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities stay low for near-term Russian recapture—around 5% by late August and 29% by October 31—reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience, including Operation Vivaldi counteractions north of Lyman that disrupted Russian encirclement attempts, combined with Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strikes degrading Russian logistics and air defenses. Scheduled events such as ongoing frontline reporting cycles and potential winter conditions could influence momentum, while any confirmed ISW map update shading the specified intersection red would trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Volumen
$148,368Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances across Donetsk Oblast in 2026, relying on glide bombs, artillery, and infantry assaults to pressure Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and adjacent sectors, yet ISW assessments show actual territorial gains far below Russian Ministry of Defense claims. Kucheriv Yar, a small village liberated by Ukrainian paratroopers in October 2025 with over 50 Russian troops captured, remains under Ukrainian control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities stay low for near-term Russian recapture—around 5% by late August and 29% by October 31—reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience, including Operation Vivaldi counteractions north of Lyman that disrupted Russian encirclement attempts, combined with Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strikes degrading Russian logistics and air defenses. Scheduled events such as ongoing frontline reporting cycles and potential winter conditions could influence momentum, while any confirmed ISW map update shading the specified intersection red would trigger market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$148,368Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue incremental advances across Donetsk Oblast in 2026, relying on glide bombs, artillery, and infantry assaults to pressure Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and adjacent sectors, yet ISW assessments show actual territorial gains far below Russian Ministry of Defense claims. Kucheriv Yar, a small village liberated by Ukrainian paratroopers in October 2025 with over 50 Russian troops captured, remains under Ukrainian control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities stay low for near-term Russian recapture—around 5% by late August and 29% by October 31—reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience, including Operation Vivaldi counteractions north of Lyman that disrupted Russian encirclement attempts, combined with Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strikes degrading Russian logistics and air defenses. Scheduled events such as ongoing frontline reporting cycles and potential winter conditions could influence momentum, while any confirmed ISW map update shading the specified intersection red would trigger market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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