Taiwan’s 2026 Report on China’s Military Power and independent analyses conclude that the PLA currently lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios. PLA aerial sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ have fallen sharply in 2026 to roughly half prior-year levels, while coast-guard and government-vessel patrols have risen, reflecting a shift toward gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. Senior PLA purges have further degraded readiness and timelines. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability to no invasion by December 31, 2027, consistent with assessments that any cross-strait operation remains unlikely before 2030 absent a major political trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
12% probabilidad
$3,236,972 Vol.
$3,236,972 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Gana un 3.25%
Sí
12% probabilidad
$3,236,972 Vol.
$3,236,972 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Gana un 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s 2026 Report on China’s Military Power and independent analyses conclude that the PLA currently lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios. PLA aerial sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ have fallen sharply in 2026 to roughly half prior-year levels, while coast-guard and government-vessel patrols have risen, reflecting a shift toward gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. Senior PLA purges have further degraded readiness and timelines. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability to no invasion by December 31, 2027, consistent with assessments that any cross-strait operation remains unlikely before 2030 absent a major political trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$3,236,972Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s 2026 Report on China’s Military Power and independent analyses conclude that the PLA currently lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios. PLA aerial sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ have fallen sharply in 2026 to roughly half prior-year levels, while coast-guard and government-vessel patrols have risen, reflecting a shift toward gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. Senior PLA purges have further degraded readiness and timelines. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability to no invasion by December 31, 2027, consistent with assessments that any cross-strait operation remains unlikely before 2030 absent a major political trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$3,236,972Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s 2026 Report on China’s Military Power and independent analyses conclude that the PLA currently lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios. PLA aerial sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ have fallen sharply in 2026 to roughly half prior-year levels, while coast-guard and government-vessel patrols have risen, reflecting a shift toward gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. Senior PLA purges have further degraded readiness and timelines. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability to no invasion by December 31, 2027, consistent with assessments that any cross-strait operation remains unlikely before 2030 absent a major political trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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