Taiwan’s 2026 Report on China’s Military Power, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustainment, and joint control capabilities required for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, with key modernization programs projected to mature between 2030 and 2035. This assessment aligns with sharply reduced PLA aerial sorties around the island in August—down to multi-year lows—and a broader shift toward lower-visibility coast-guard and gray-zone pressure rather than large-scale exercises. Ongoing Taiwanese drills integrating drones, missiles, and rapid-response units further underscore defensive preparations that complicate any near-term operation. Traders pricing an 88.5 percent chance of no invasion by the end of 2027 reflect these capacity constraints and the absence of escalatory triggers ahead of the upcoming U.S.-China summit.