Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone drives the near-certain market consensus, with the company maintaining a consistent September launch window for new iPhone models since 2007 and no credible signals of disruption as of September 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing patterns, and prior model timelines reinforce expectations for the iPhone 18 rollout within the standard cycle. While product timelines can shift due to manufacturing delays or component shortages, and regulatory scrutiny in key markets like the EU could influence feature availability, these factors have not historically altered the core annual cadence or prevented a release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
>99% probabilidad
$214,641 Vol.
$214,641 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
>99% probabilidad
$214,641 Vol.
$214,641 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone drives the near-certain market consensus, with the company maintaining a consistent September launch window for new iPhone models since 2007 and no credible signals of disruption as of September 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing patterns, and prior model timelines reinforce expectations for the iPhone 18 rollout within the standard cycle. While product timelines can shift due to manufacturing delays or component shortages, and regulatory scrutiny in key markets like the EU could influence feature availability, these factors have not historically altered the core annual cadence or prevented a release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$214,641Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone drives the near-certain market consensus, with the company maintaining a consistent September launch window for new iPhone models since 2007 and no credible signals of disruption as of September 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing patterns, and prior model timelines reinforce expectations for the iPhone 18 rollout within the standard cycle. While product timelines can shift due to manufacturing delays or component shortages, and regulatory scrutiny in key markets like the EU could influence feature availability, these factors have not historically altered the core annual cadence or prevented a release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$214,641Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone drives the near-certain market consensus, with the company maintaining a consistent September launch window for new iPhone models since 2007 and no credible signals of disruption as of September 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing patterns, and prior model timelines reinforce expectations for the iPhone 18 rollout within the standard cycle. While product timelines can shift due to manufacturing delays or component shortages, and regulatory scrutiny in key markets like the EU could influence feature availability, these factors have not historically altered the core annual cadence or prevented a release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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