Anthropic's Claude models, including Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, anchor the 76% implied probability by occupying the top positions on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of mid-September, reflecting sustained leadership in crowdsourced Elo ratings for complex reasoning tasks. This edge stems from demonstrated strengths in iterative problem-solving, tool use, and competition-style math benchmarks such as USAMO 2026, where Claude variants exceed 96% accuracy. Rivals like Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT-5 series trail in the same category, while lower-probability Chinese labs face gaps in human-preference evaluations. Key catalysts ahead of the October close include potential Anthropic model updates amid competitive pressure and any shifts in leaderboard voting volume.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 73%
Google 11.2%
OpenAI 8%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,644 Vol.
$38,644 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
73%
11%
OpenAI
8%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 73%
Google 11.2%
OpenAI 8%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,644 Vol.
$38,644 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$16,021 Vol.
73%
$1,765 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$6,905 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$982 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,002 Vol.
1%
Meta
$1,105 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,132 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$964 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$942 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$753 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$778 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,033 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$694 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$492 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$745 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$653 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$649 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$773 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$662 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, anchor the 76% implied probability by occupying the top positions on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of mid-September, reflecting sustained leadership in crowdsourced Elo ratings for complex reasoning tasks. This edge stems from demonstrated strengths in iterative problem-solving, tool use, and competition-style math benchmarks such as USAMO 2026, where Claude variants exceed 96% accuracy. Rivals like Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT-5 series trail in the same category, while lower-probability Chinese labs face gaps in human-preference evaluations. Key catalysts ahead of the October close include potential Anthropic model updates amid competitive pressure and any shifts in leaderboard voting volume.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$38,644Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, anchor the 76% implied probability by occupying the top positions on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of mid-September, reflecting sustained leadership in crowdsourced Elo ratings for complex reasoning tasks. This edge stems from demonstrated strengths in iterative problem-solving, tool use, and competition-style math benchmarks such as USAMO 2026, where Claude variants exceed 96% accuracy. Rivals like Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT-5 series trail in the same category, while lower-probability Chinese labs face gaps in human-preference evaluations. Key catalysts ahead of the October close include potential Anthropic model updates amid competitive pressure and any shifts in leaderboard voting volume.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$38,644Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude models, including Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, anchor the 76% implied probability by occupying the top positions on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of mid-September, reflecting sustained leadership in crowdsourced Elo ratings for complex reasoning tasks. This edge stems from demonstrated strengths in iterative problem-solving, tool use, and competition-style math benchmarks such as USAMO 2026, where Claude variants exceed 96% accuracy. Rivals like Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT-5 series trail in the same category, while lower-probability Chinese labs face gaps in human-preference evaluations. Key catalysts ahead of the October close include potential Anthropic model updates amid competitive pressure and any shifts in leaderboard voting volume.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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