Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in the WA-03 general election market due to her established record of narrow but consistent victories in the swing district, substantial fundraising edge with over $2 million in cash on hand, and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won area. Traders appear to weigh her institutional support and crossover voter base more heavily than the top-two primary results, where John Braun edged her slightly amid low turnout. Significant Republican outside spending on ads opposing Perez has not yet shifted implied probabilities, reflecting confidence in her path to victory through strong Democratic consolidation and district-specific dynamics. A late surge in Braun's polling, higher Republican turnout, or major campaign developments could narrow the gap before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$35,786 Vol.
$35,786 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
91%
John Braun (R)
11%
$35,786 Vol.
$35,786 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
$24,586 Vol.
91%
John Braun (R)
$11,200 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in the WA-03 general election market due to her established record of narrow but consistent victories in the swing district, substantial fundraising edge with over $2 million in cash on hand, and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won area. Traders appear to weigh her institutional support and crossover voter base more heavily than the top-two primary results, where John Braun edged her slightly amid low turnout. Significant Republican outside spending on ads opposing Perez has not yet shifted implied probabilities, reflecting confidence in her path to victory through strong Democratic consolidation and district-specific dynamics. A late surge in Braun's polling, higher Republican turnout, or major campaign developments could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volumen
$35,786Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in the WA-03 general election market due to her established record of narrow but consistent victories in the swing district, substantial fundraising edge with over $2 million in cash on hand, and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won area. Traders appear to weigh her institutional support and crossover voter base more heavily than the top-two primary results, where John Braun edged her slightly amid low turnout. Significant Republican outside spending on ads opposing Perez has not yet shifted implied probabilities, reflecting confidence in her path to victory through strong Democratic consolidation and district-specific dynamics. A late surge in Braun's polling, higher Republican turnout, or major campaign developments could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,786Fecha de finalización
5 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding position in the WA-03 general election market due to her established record of narrow but consistent victories in the swing district, substantial fundraising edge with over $2 million in cash on hand, and appeal as a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won area. Traders appear to weigh her institutional support and crossover voter base more heavily than the top-two primary results, where John Braun edged her slightly amid low turnout. Significant Republican outside spending on ads opposing Perez has not yet shifted implied probabilities, reflecting confidence in her path to victory through strong Democratic consolidation and district-specific dynamics. A late surge in Braun's polling, higher Republican turnout, or major campaign developments could narrow the gap before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes