Recent diplomatic progress between the Trump administration and Chinese officials underpins the elevated trader consensus around a tariff agreement by year-end. In September 2026, negotiators led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Vice Premier He Lifeng reached a temporary suspension of escalated duties, lowering U.S. rates on Chinese imports to 30 percent and Chinese rates on U.S. goods to 10 percent for 90 days while preserving prior Section 301 and other levies. Parallel talks established the U.S.-China Board of Trade to address reciprocal cuts covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside commitments on critical minerals, agricultural purchases, and export controls. These steps build on the May 2026 leaders’ framework and precede the November 10 expiration of the existing trade truce, creating structured channels for further concessions ahead of the December 31 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado91% probabilidad
$256,894 Vol.
$256,894 Vol.
31 dic 2026
91% probabilidad
$256,894 Vol.
$256,894 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic progress between the Trump administration and Chinese officials underpins the elevated trader consensus around a tariff agreement by year-end. In September 2026, negotiators led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Vice Premier He Lifeng reached a temporary suspension of escalated duties, lowering U.S. rates on Chinese imports to 30 percent and Chinese rates on U.S. goods to 10 percent for 90 days while preserving prior Section 301 and other levies. Parallel talks established the U.S.-China Board of Trade to address reciprocal cuts covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside commitments on critical minerals, agricultural purchases, and export controls. These steps build on the May 2026 leaders’ framework and precede the November 10 expiration of the existing trade truce, creating structured channels for further concessions ahead of the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$256,894Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic progress between the Trump administration and Chinese officials underpins the elevated trader consensus around a tariff agreement by year-end. In September 2026, negotiators led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Vice Premier He Lifeng reached a temporary suspension of escalated duties, lowering U.S. rates on Chinese imports to 30 percent and Chinese rates on U.S. goods to 10 percent for 90 days while preserving prior Section 301 and other levies. Parallel talks established the U.S.-China Board of Trade to address reciprocal cuts covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside commitments on critical minerals, agricultural purchases, and export controls. These steps build on the May 2026 leaders’ framework and precede the November 10 expiration of the existing trade truce, creating structured channels for further concessions ahead of the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$256,894Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress between the Trump administration and Chinese officials underpins the elevated trader consensus around a tariff agreement by year-end. In September 2026, negotiators led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Vice Premier He Lifeng reached a temporary suspension of escalated duties, lowering U.S. rates on Chinese imports to 30 percent and Chinese rates on U.S. goods to 10 percent for 90 days while preserving prior Section 301 and other levies. Parallel talks established the U.S.-China Board of Trade to address reciprocal cuts covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside commitments on critical minerals, agricultural purchases, and export controls. These steps build on the May 2026 leaders’ framework and precede the November 10 expiration of the existing trade truce, creating structured channels for further concessions ahead of the December 31 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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