US federal actions against Cuba have centered on sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than criminal indictments of sitting leaders. The Treasury Department sanctioned President Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife, and affiliated entities in June 2026 as part of a broader maximum-pressure campaign that also included an energy blockade, secondary sanctions, and an earlier May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue incident. September 2026 measures targeted additional Cuban military and mining firms, while limited bilateral talks continued. No formal federal charges against Díaz-Canel have been announced. Trader consensus on a year-end resolution reflects uncertainty over whether sanctions will escalate into indictments, given legal and diplomatic barriers, ongoing policy signals, and the precedent set by the Castro case.