Madeleine Dean's commanding position in the PA-04 House race stems from her incumbency in a suburban Philadelphia district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, combined with substantial fundraising and unopposed primary victories for both candidates in May 2026. The district's voter composition and Dean's prior margins above 59 percent have shaped trader consensus around a high implied probability of her reelection on November 3. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including lower visibility and resources. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, significant scandal, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
PA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$21,487 Vol.
$21,487 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Madeleine Dean (D)
95%
Aurora Stuski (R)
5%
$21,487 Vol.
$21,487 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Madeleine Dean (D)
$6,759 Vol.
95%
Aurora Stuski (R)
$14,729 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean's commanding position in the PA-04 House race stems from her incumbency in a suburban Philadelphia district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, combined with substantial fundraising and unopposed primary victories for both candidates in May 2026. The district's voter composition and Dean's prior margins above 59 percent have shaped trader consensus around a high implied probability of her reelection on November 3. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including lower visibility and resources. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, significant scandal, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$21,487Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean's commanding position in the PA-04 House race stems from her incumbency in a suburban Philadelphia district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, combined with substantial fundraising and unopposed primary victories for both candidates in May 2026. The district's voter composition and Dean's prior margins above 59 percent have shaped trader consensus around a high implied probability of her reelection on November 3. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including lower visibility and resources. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, significant scandal, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,487Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Madeleine Dean's commanding position in the PA-04 House race stems from her incumbency in a suburban Philadelphia district rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, combined with substantial fundraising and unopposed primary victories for both candidates in May 2026. The district's voter composition and Dean's prior margins above 59 percent have shaped trader consensus around a high implied probability of her reelection on November 3. Aurora Stuski, the Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including lower visibility and resources. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, significant scandal, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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