NY-14 remains a solidly Democratic district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez facing Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Ocasio-Cortez secured her primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote in June, while Hysenaj advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean in Queens and the Bronx. Trader consensus on the margin clusters around 45-55 percent for the Democrat, driven by historical results, limited recent district-specific polling, and the broader 2026 midterm environment where national generic ballot trends and New York turnout patterns could shift the final spread. Developments such as late campaign spending surges, voter mobilization efforts, or unexpected national events before Election Day remain the main variables that could widen or narrow the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDemocrat 45-50% 36%
Democrat 50-55% 31%
Democrat 35-40% 17%
Democrat 40-45% 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 65%+
7%
Democrat 60-65%
1%
Democrat 55-60%
3%
Democrat 50-55%
31%
Democrat 45-50%
36%
Democrat 40-45%
15%
Democrat 35-40%
13%
Democrat 25-35%
4%
Democrat 0-25%
10%
Republican Wins
3%
Democrat 45-50% 36%
Democrat 50-55% 31%
Democrat 35-40% 17%
Democrat 40-45% 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 65%+
$230 Vol.
7%
Democrat 60-65%
$521 Vol.
1%
Democrat 55-60%
$146 Vol.
3%
Democrat 50-55%
$752 Vol.
31%
Democrat 45-50%
$571 Vol.
36%
Democrat 40-45%
$208 Vol.
15%
Democrat 35-40%
$186 Vol.
13%
Democrat 25-35%
$188 Vol.
4%
Democrat 0-25%
$242 Vol.
10%
Republican Wins
$135 Vol.
3%
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NY-14 remains a solidly Democratic district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez facing Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Ocasio-Cortez secured her primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote in June, while Hysenaj advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean in Queens and the Bronx. Trader consensus on the margin clusters around 45-55 percent for the Democrat, driven by historical results, limited recent district-specific polling, and the broader 2026 midterm environment where national generic ballot trends and New York turnout patterns could shift the final spread. Developments such as late campaign spending surges, voter mobilization efforts, or unexpected national events before Election Day remain the main variables that could widen or narrow the outcome.
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$3,180Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NY-14 remains a solidly Democratic district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez facing Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Ocasio-Cortez secured her primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote in June, while Hysenaj advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean in Queens and the Bronx. Trader consensus on the margin clusters around 45-55 percent for the Democrat, driven by historical results, limited recent district-specific polling, and the broader 2026 midterm environment where national generic ballot trends and New York turnout patterns could shift the final spread. Developments such as late campaign spending surges, voter mobilization efforts, or unexpected national events before Election Day remain the main variables that could widen or narrow the outcome.
The 2026 NY-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,180Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NY-14 remains a solidly Democratic district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez facing Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Ocasio-Cortez secured her primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote in June, while Hysenaj advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean in Queens and the Bronx. Trader consensus on the margin clusters around 45-55 percent for the Democrat, driven by historical results, limited recent district-specific polling, and the broader 2026 midterm environment where national generic ballot trends and New York turnout patterns could shift the final spread. Developments such as late campaign spending surges, voter mobilization efforts, or unexpected national events before Election Day remain the main variables that could widen or narrow the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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