Nicolás Maduro remains in federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty, with their trial set for June 2027. Defense motions citing head-of-state immunity are scheduled for argument in November 2026, while Flores recently sought house arrest on health grounds; prosecutors have opposed early release. Trader consensus assigns low odds of release by December 31, 2026, reflecting the distant trial date, absence of plea negotiations or executive intervention, and procedural timeline in the Southern District of New York. Ongoing Venezuela transition talks and interim governance under Delcy Rodríguez have not altered the U.S. criminal case status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,689,498 Vol.
30 ene 2026
31 de diciembre
7%
$2,689,498 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$294,049 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty, with their trial set for June 2027. Defense motions citing head-of-state immunity are scheduled for argument in November 2026, while Flores recently sought house arrest on health grounds; prosecutors have opposed early release. Trader consensus assigns low odds of release by December 31, 2026, reflecting the distant trial date, absence of plea negotiations or executive intervention, and procedural timeline in the Southern District of New York. Ongoing Venezuela transition talks and interim governance under Delcy Rodríguez have not altered the U.S. criminal case status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volumen
$2,689,498Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty, with their trial set for June 2027. Defense motions citing head-of-state immunity are scheduled for argument in November 2026, while Flores recently sought house arrest on health grounds; prosecutors have opposed early release. Trader consensus assigns low odds of release by December 31, 2026, reflecting the distant trial date, absence of plea negotiations or executive intervention, and procedural timeline in the Southern District of New York. Ongoing Venezuela transition talks and interim governance under Delcy Rodríguez have not altered the U.S. criminal case status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,689,498Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty, with their trial set for June 2027. Defense motions citing head-of-state immunity are scheduled for argument in November 2026, while Flores recently sought house arrest on health grounds; prosecutors have opposed early release. Trader consensus assigns low odds of release by December 31, 2026, reflecting the distant trial date, absence of plea negotiations or executive intervention, and procedural timeline in the Southern District of New York. Ongoing Venezuela transition talks and interim governance under Delcy Rodríguez have not altered the U.S. criminal case status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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