Virginia Democrats pursued mid-decade congressional redistricting through a 2025-2026 constitutional amendment process and a new map (HB 29) designed to shift several Republican-leaning districts toward Democratic majorities, potentially netting four additional seats. Voters narrowly approved the amendment in an April 21, 2026, referendum, but the Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 on May 8 that procedural violations during legislative passage invalidated the measure, nullifying the results and blocking implementation. The U.S. Supreme Court denied an emergency stay later that month, and state officials confirmed the existing 2021 map would govern the November 2026 elections. With appeals exhausted and the election calendar advanced, traders assign overwhelming probability to the status quo map remaining in place. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited to highly improbable events such as an unforeseen federal intervention or administrative reversal before ballot finalization.