**Incumbent Democrat Kelly Morrison holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, with nonpartisan forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic.** The western Twin Cities suburbs delivered Democratic margins of roughly 8–10 points in recent cycles, including Harris’s performance in 2024, and Morrison won her first full term comfortably after advancing unopposed in the August primary. Republican nominee Tyler Bass, a first-time candidate who narrowly won his primary, faces structural challenges including limited fundraising and the district’s partisan lean. Prediction-market pricing on the Democrat’s margin of victory clusters in the 25–40 point range, reflecting traders’ assessment of these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the race. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late-cycle national messaging could influence turnout but appear unlikely to alter the competitive landscape significantly before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDemócrata 35-40% 27.5%
Demócrata 25-30% 27%
Demócrata 30-35% 26%
Demócrata 20-25% 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 45%+
3%
Demócrata 40-45%
10%
Demócrata 35-40%
28%
Demócrata 30-35%
26%
Demócrata 25-30%
27%
Demócrata 20-25%
13%
Demócrata 15-20%
4%
Demócrata 5-15%
2%
Demócrata 0-5%
1%
Victoria Republicana
<1%
Demócrata 35-40% 27.5%
Demócrata 25-30% 27%
Demócrata 30-35% 26%
Demócrata 20-25% 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 45%+
$322 Vol.
3%
Demócrata 40-45%
$414 Vol.
10%
Demócrata 35-40%
$1,083 Vol.
28%
Demócrata 30-35%
$1,740 Vol.
26%
Demócrata 25-30%
$1,374 Vol.
27%
Demócrata 20-25%
$630 Vol.
13%
Demócrata 15-20%
$349 Vol.
4%
Demócrata 5-15%
$319 Vol.
2%
Demócrata 0-5%
$295 Vol.
1%
Victoria Republicana
$265 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 MN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Kelly Morrison holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, with nonpartisan forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic.** The western Twin Cities suburbs delivered Democratic margins of roughly 8–10 points in recent cycles, including Harris’s performance in 2024, and Morrison won her first full term comfortably after advancing unopposed in the August primary. Republican nominee Tyler Bass, a first-time candidate who narrowly won his primary, faces structural challenges including limited fundraising and the district’s partisan lean. Prediction-market pricing on the Democrat’s margin of victory clusters in the 25–40 point range, reflecting traders’ assessment of these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the race. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late-cycle national messaging could influence turnout but appear unlikely to alter the competitive landscape significantly before Election Day.
The 2026 MN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volumen
$6,792Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Kelly Morrison holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, with nonpartisan forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic.** The western Twin Cities suburbs delivered Democratic margins of roughly 8–10 points in recent cycles, including Harris’s performance in 2024, and Morrison won her first full term comfortably after advancing unopposed in the August primary. Republican nominee Tyler Bass, a first-time candidate who narrowly won his primary, faces structural challenges including limited fundraising and the district’s partisan lean. Prediction-market pricing on the Democrat’s margin of victory clusters in the 25–40 point range, reflecting traders’ assessment of these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the race. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late-cycle national messaging could influence turnout but appear unlikely to alter the competitive landscape significantly before Election Day.
The 2026 MN-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MN-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,792Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Kelly Morrison holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, with nonpartisan forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic.** The western Twin Cities suburbs delivered Democratic margins of roughly 8–10 points in recent cycles, including Harris’s performance in 2024, and Morrison won her first full term comfortably after advancing unopposed in the August primary. Republican nominee Tyler Bass, a first-time candidate who narrowly won his primary, faces structural challenges including limited fundraising and the district’s partisan lean. Prediction-market pricing on the Democrat’s margin of victory clusters in the 25–40 point range, reflecting traders’ assessment of these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the race. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or late-cycle national messaging could influence turnout but appear unlikely to alter the competitive landscape significantly before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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