Johnny Olszewski holds a commanding lead in the MD-02 House race as the Democratic incumbent in a district with a D+10 partisan lean, where he captured 58% in 2024 and cruised through the June 2026 primary with 85% of the vote. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Baltimore and Carroll counties. Wallace, the Republican nominee and a repeat candidate, secured his primary but faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Olszewski reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome, though historical base rates in similar districts suggest low probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMD-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MD-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$24,629 Vol.
$24,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Johnny Olszewski (D)
96%
Dave Wallace (R)
5%
$24,629 Vol.
$24,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Johnny Olszewski (D)
$12,596 Vol.
96%
Dave Wallace (R)
$12,034 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Johnny Olszewski holds a commanding lead in the MD-02 House race as the Democratic incumbent in a district with a D+10 partisan lean, where he captured 58% in 2024 and cruised through the June 2026 primary with 85% of the vote. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Baltimore and Carroll counties. Wallace, the Republican nominee and a repeat candidate, secured his primary but faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Olszewski reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome, though historical base rates in similar districts suggest low probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$24,629Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Johnny Olszewski holds a commanding lead in the MD-02 House race as the Democratic incumbent in a district with a D+10 partisan lean, where he captured 58% in 2024 and cruised through the June 2026 primary with 85% of the vote. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Baltimore and Carroll counties. Wallace, the Republican nominee and a repeat candidate, secured his primary but faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Olszewski reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome, though historical base rates in similar districts suggest low probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$24,629Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Johnny Olszewski holds a commanding lead in the MD-02 House race as the Democratic incumbent in a district with a D+10 partisan lean, where he captured 58% in 2024 and cruised through the June 2026 primary with 85% of the vote. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Baltimore and Carroll counties. Wallace, the Republican nominee and a repeat candidate, secured his primary but faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Olszewski reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome, though historical base rates in similar districts suggest low probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes