The US trade embargo, reinforced by intensified sanctions and shipping restrictions under the Trump administration in 2026, remains the dominant barrier preventing McDonald’s or other US-based companies from announcing operations in Cuba. Cuban authorities approved Decree 167 and related measures in June and August to permit foreign franchises and private restaurant chains under conditions of economic equality, yet these steps have produced no concrete interest or commitments from the chain. Recent diplomatic contacts between Washington and Havana have yielded no easing of restrictions, and McDonald’s has made no public statements signaling entry. Traders assign a 93% implied probability to “No” because the embargo’s legal and enforcement hurdles outweigh Cuban regulatory changes, with no scheduled events likely to alter that dynamic before year-end.