Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration on its Kimi large language model series, capped by the July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 MoE with 1M-token context, native vision, and frontier-competitive benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for K4. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor still in development, with no official announcement, model card, or release date as of early September 2026. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, Anthropic’s Claude models, and rival Chinese labs like DeepSeek continues to accelerate timelines, while K3’s open-weight release under a custom license and subsequent compute constraints highlight scaling challenges. Key catalysts include potential developer conference reveals, funding or IPO updates, and any leaked training details that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$17,498 Vol.
31 oct 2026
31 de octubre de 2026
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
14%
$17,498 Vol.
31 de octubre de 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$8,010 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration on its Kimi large language model series, capped by the July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 MoE with 1M-token context, native vision, and frontier-competitive benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for K4. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor still in development, with no official announcement, model card, or release date as of early September 2026. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, Anthropic’s Claude models, and rival Chinese labs like DeepSeek continues to accelerate timelines, while K3’s open-weight release under a custom license and subsequent compute constraints highlight scaling challenges. Key catalysts include potential developer conference reveals, funding or IPO updates, and any leaked training details that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$17,498Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration on its Kimi large language model series, capped by the July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 MoE with 1M-token context, native vision, and frontier-competitive benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for K4. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor still in development, with no official announcement, model card, or release date as of early September 2026. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, Anthropic’s Claude models, and rival Chinese labs like DeepSeek continues to accelerate timelines, while K3’s open-weight release under a custom license and subsequent compute constraints highlight scaling challenges. Key catalysts include potential developer conference reveals, funding or IPO updates, and any leaked training details that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,498Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid iteration on its Kimi large language model series, capped by the July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 MoE with 1M-token context, native vision, and frontier-competitive benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for K4. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor still in development, with no official announcement, model card, or release date as of early September 2026. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6, Anthropic’s Claude models, and rival Chinese labs like DeepSeek continues to accelerate timelines, while K3’s open-weight release under a custom license and subsequent compute constraints highlight scaling challenges. Key catalysts include potential developer conference reveals, funding or IPO updates, and any leaked training details that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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