Iowa's four congressional districts remain all-Republican held ahead of the November 2026 election, yet forecasters rate the 1st and 3rd as toss-ups or lean Democratic while the open 2nd has shifted toward greater competitiveness following the incumbent's Senate bid. Recent polling shows narrow margins or Democratic leads in the 1st District rematch between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan, with similar dynamics in the 3rd between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott. The 4th District stays safely Republican. These factors, combined with the typical midterm environment for the out-party, underpin trader consensus around three Democratic seats as the most probable outcome while leaving room for variation based on turnout and late-cycle shifts in the two or three battlegrounds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3 41%
2 26%
1 22.1%
4 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
0
7%
1
22%
2
26%
3
41%
4
8%
3 41%
2 26%
1 22.1%
4 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
0
$740 Vol.
7%
1
$999 Vol.
22%
2
$2,705 Vol.
26%
3
$2,103 Vol.
41%
4
$493 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Iowa's four congressional districts remain all-Republican held ahead of the November 2026 election, yet forecasters rate the 1st and 3rd as toss-ups or lean Democratic while the open 2nd has shifted toward greater competitiveness following the incumbent's Senate bid. Recent polling shows narrow margins or Democratic leads in the 1st District rematch between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan, with similar dynamics in the 3rd between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott. The 4th District stays safely Republican. These factors, combined with the typical midterm environment for the out-party, underpin trader consensus around three Democratic seats as the most probable outcome while leaving room for variation based on turnout and late-cycle shifts in the two or three battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volumen
$7,039Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Iowa's four congressional districts remain all-Republican held ahead of the November 2026 election, yet forecasters rate the 1st and 3rd as toss-ups or lean Democratic while the open 2nd has shifted toward greater competitiveness following the incumbent's Senate bid. Recent polling shows narrow margins or Democratic leads in the 1st District rematch between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan, with similar dynamics in the 3rd between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott. The 4th District stays safely Republican. These factors, combined with the typical midterm environment for the out-party, underpin trader consensus around three Democratic seats as the most probable outcome while leaving room for variation based on turnout and late-cycle shifts in the two or three battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,039Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iowa's four congressional districts remain all-Republican held ahead of the November 2026 election, yet forecasters rate the 1st and 3rd as toss-ups or lean Democratic while the open 2nd has shifted toward greater competitiveness following the incumbent's Senate bid. Recent polling shows narrow margins or Democratic leads in the 1st District rematch between Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan, with similar dynamics in the 3rd between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott. The 4th District stays safely Republican. These factors, combined with the typical midterm environment for the out-party, underpin trader consensus around three Democratic seats as the most probable outcome while leaving room for variation based on turnout and late-cycle shifts in the two or three battlegrounds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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