The 30-year Treasury yield trades near 5.30% as of September 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid a shift in market-implied odds toward fewer or no Fed rate cuts through year-end. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and elevated term premia tied to heavy Treasury and corporate supply—exacerbated by AI-driven capital needs and fiscal deficits—have anchored longer-term rates at multi-year highs. Recent Fed communications under Chair Warsh, including a September hike to the 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, reinforce trader expectations for a higher policy path, limiting downside in long-duration yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE and CPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could influence supply dynamics and real-rate expectations before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$14,287 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Por debajo de 5,20%
61%
Por debajo del 5,15%
56%
Por debajo del 5,10%
43%
Por debajo del 5,05%
38%
Por debajo de 5,00%
30%
Por debajo del 4,95%
27%
Por debajo del 4,90%
19%
Por debajo del 4,80%
14%
Por debajo del 4,60%
2%
$14,287 Vol.
Por debajo de 5,20%
$1,512 Vol.
61%
Por debajo del 5,15%
$775 Vol.
56%
Por debajo del 5,10%
$1,844 Vol.
43%
Por debajo del 5,05%
$234 Vol.
38%
Por debajo de 5,00%
$1,930 Vol.
30%
Por debajo del 4,95%
$561 Vol.
27%
Por debajo del 4,90%
$1,158 Vol.
19%
Por debajo del 4,80%
$3,100 Vol.
14%
Por debajo del 4,60%
$3,173 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield trades near 5.30% as of September 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid a shift in market-implied odds toward fewer or no Fed rate cuts through year-end. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and elevated term premia tied to heavy Treasury and corporate supply—exacerbated by AI-driven capital needs and fiscal deficits—have anchored longer-term rates at multi-year highs. Recent Fed communications under Chair Warsh, including a September hike to the 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, reinforce trader expectations for a higher policy path, limiting downside in long-duration yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE and CPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could influence supply dynamics and real-rate expectations before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$14,287Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield trades near 5.30% as of September 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid a shift in market-implied odds toward fewer or no Fed rate cuts through year-end. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and elevated term premia tied to heavy Treasury and corporate supply—exacerbated by AI-driven capital needs and fiscal deficits—have anchored longer-term rates at multi-year highs. Recent Fed communications under Chair Warsh, including a September hike to the 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, reinforce trader expectations for a higher policy path, limiting downside in long-duration yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE and CPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could influence supply dynamics and real-rate expectations before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$14,287Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield trades near 5.30% as of September 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid a shift in market-implied odds toward fewer or no Fed rate cuts through year-end. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, resilient economic growth, and elevated term premia tied to heavy Treasury and corporate supply—exacerbated by AI-driven capital needs and fiscal deficits—have anchored longer-term rates at multi-year highs. Recent Fed communications under Chair Warsh, including a September hike to the 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, reinforce trader expectations for a higher policy path, limiting downside in long-duration yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, PCE and CPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could influence supply dynamics and real-rate expectations before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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