**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027. While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$208,964 Vol.
$208,964 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$208,964 Vol.
$208,964 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027.
While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$208,964Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027.
While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volumen
$208,964Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the current policy stance and economic backdrop.** The federal funds target range remains at 3.50-3.75% as of September 2026, with the effective rate near 3.63%, amid headline PCE inflation holding at 3.7% and core at 3.3%—well above the 2% goal—driven by energy shocks and supply constraints. The labor market shows resilience, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, providing little justification for urgent easing. Official projections and recent FOMC communications point to steady or potentially tighter policy through year-end, with cuts not anticipated until 2027. While an unforeseen financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still trigger action, the absence of such signals underpins the strong conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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