Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the CA-15 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by his strong performance in the June 2 top-two primary, where he secured 65% of the vote against a fragmented field. The district, covering parts of the San Francisco Bay Peninsula, has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with Mullin previously winning reelection by wide margins. Charles Hoelter advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks notable campaign infrastructure. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural and electoral barriers facing the challenger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
<1%
$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
$94,061 Vol.
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
$28,305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the CA-15 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by his strong performance in the June 2 top-two primary, where he secured 65% of the vote against a fragmented field. The district, covering parts of the San Francisco Bay Peninsula, has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with Mullin previously winning reelection by wide margins. Charles Hoelter advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks notable campaign infrastructure. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural and electoral barriers facing the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$122,366Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the CA-15 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by his strong performance in the June 2 top-two primary, where he secured 65% of the vote against a fragmented field. The district, covering parts of the San Francisco Bay Peninsula, has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with Mullin previously winning reelection by wide margins. Charles Hoelter advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks notable campaign infrastructure. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural and electoral barriers facing the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$122,366Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding lead in the CA-15 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by his strong performance in the June 2 top-two primary, where he secured 65% of the vote against a fragmented field. The district, covering parts of the San Francisco Bay Peninsula, has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with Mullin previously winning reelection by wide margins. Charles Hoelter advanced as the Republican nominee but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks notable campaign infrastructure. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unforeseen national shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural and electoral barriers facing the challenger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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