Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the prior presidential contest, and Cotton's established record after two terms. He secured his party's nomination easily in the March primary, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner emerged as her party's nominee but trails significantly in available polling averages and forecasts that rate the contest Solid Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including recent endorsements such as the NRA's strong support for Cotton. Potential shifts remain possible from late developments like health events, major scandals, or abrupt national political changes before the November 3 general election, though structural barriers limit realistic competitiveness.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Arkansas
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Arkansas
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
5%
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
$12,595 Vol.
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
$4,486 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the prior presidential contest, and Cotton's established record after two terms. He secured his party's nomination easily in the March primary, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner emerged as her party's nominee but trails significantly in available polling averages and forecasts that rate the contest Solid Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including recent endorsements such as the NRA's strong support for Cotton. Potential shifts remain possible from late developments like health events, major scandals, or abrupt national political changes before the November 3 general election, though structural barriers limit realistic competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$17,081Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the prior presidential contest, and Cotton's established record after two terms. He secured his party's nomination easily in the March primary, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner emerged as her party's nominee but trails significantly in available polling averages and forecasts that rate the contest Solid Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including recent endorsements such as the NRA's strong support for Cotton. Potential shifts remain possible from late developments like health events, major scandals, or abrupt national political changes before the November 3 general election, though structural barriers limit realistic competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$17,081Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the prior presidential contest, and Cotton's established record after two terms. He secured his party's nomination easily in the March primary, while Democrat Hallie Shoffner emerged as her party's nominee but trails significantly in available polling averages and forecasts that rate the contest Solid Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including recent endorsements such as the NRA's strong support for Cotton. Potential shifts remain possible from late developments like health events, major scandals, or abrupt national political changes before the November 3 general election, though structural barriers limit realistic competitiveness.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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