**Traders assign a 95.6% probability that no STF justice will be removed by impeachment before 2027 because Senate procedures and institutional barriers make swift removal highly unlikely.** Over 100 impeachment requests, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, remain stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre’s gatekeeping authority, with opposition proposals to lower the threshold to 49 senators facing uncertain prospects of passage. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes), a standard never met against an STF justice in Brazilian history. The compressed timeline through the end of 2026, combined with ongoing internal court disputes over the Banco Master investigation and the October 2026 elections, further limits the window for any successful process to reach completion. While public polling shows support for accountability measures and opposition candidates highlight the issue, procedural rules and political arithmetic continue to favor continuity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
4% probabilidad
$91,769 Vol.
$91,769 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$91,769 Vol.
$91,769 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 95.6% probability that no STF justice will be removed by impeachment before 2027 because Senate procedures and institutional barriers make swift removal highly unlikely.** Over 100 impeachment requests, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, remain stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre’s gatekeeping authority, with opposition proposals to lower the threshold to 49 senators facing uncertain prospects of passage. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes), a standard never met against an STF justice in Brazilian history. The compressed timeline through the end of 2026, combined with ongoing internal court disputes over the Banco Master investigation and the October 2026 elections, further limits the window for any successful process to reach completion. While public polling shows support for accountability measures and opposition candidates highlight the issue, procedural rules and political arithmetic continue to favor continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$91,769Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 95.6% probability that no STF justice will be removed by impeachment before 2027 because Senate procedures and institutional barriers make swift removal highly unlikely.** Over 100 impeachment requests, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, remain stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre’s gatekeeping authority, with opposition proposals to lower the threshold to 49 senators facing uncertain prospects of passage. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes), a standard never met against an STF justice in Brazilian history. The compressed timeline through the end of 2026, combined with ongoing internal court disputes over the Banco Master investigation and the October 2026 elections, further limits the window for any successful process to reach completion. While public polling shows support for accountability measures and opposition candidates highlight the issue, procedural rules and political arithmetic continue to favor continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$91,769Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 95.6% probability that no STF justice will be removed by impeachment before 2027 because Senate procedures and institutional barriers make swift removal highly unlikely.** Over 100 impeachment requests, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, remain stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre’s gatekeeping authority, with opposition proposals to lower the threshold to 49 senators facing uncertain prospects of passage. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes), a standard never met against an STF justice in Brazilian history. The compressed timeline through the end of 2026, combined with ongoing internal court disputes over the Banco Master investigation and the October 2026 elections, further limits the window for any successful process to reach completion. While public polling shows support for accountability measures and opposition candidates highlight the issue, procedural rules and political arithmetic continue to favor continuity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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