Emmanuel Macron’s second and final presidential term ends in May 2027, with the next election scheduled for April, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for major new initiatives such as convening a nationwide referendum by year-end 2026. Past references to using Article 11 or other mechanisms on topics like end-of-life policy did not lead to a vote after parliamentary progress and Constitutional Council rulings narrowed options. No acute legislative deadlock or official timetable has emerged to compel action, while Macron has instead pursued priorities through EU channels or standard legislation. Traders assign overwhelming probability to no referendum occurring, reflecting the absence of announced plans or structural necessity amid the fragmented National Assembly and approaching campaign season.