**Ongoing regional tensions and Saudi Arabia’s firm conditions have kept the odds of a new Abraham Accords signatory before 2027 heavily against it at 90.8%.** Saudi officials continue to tie any normalization to a credible path toward Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to accession and recent Israeli offers of intelligence support against Houthi attacks. Speculation about Kuwait or other states remains tentative, with no confirmed negotiations or imminent announcements. The short remaining window until December 31, 2026, combined with domestic political constraints in potential member states and the absence of major diplomatic breakthroughs since Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry, underpins trader consensus that an additional country is unlikely.