Washington’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the tightest House races heading into the November general election, with incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez facing Republican state Sen. John Braun after both advanced from the August top-two primary. The swing district’s recent narrow Democratic holds, combined with Braun’s Trump endorsement and strong primary performance, have kept polling averages nearly even and produced similar implied probabilities across multiple victory-margin buckets. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the balance between Perez’s incumbency and fundraising advantages and Braun’s appeal in a district that leaned Republican in the prior presidential election. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling, candidate debates, or national momentum shifts could quickly widen or narrow the expected margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDemokrat 0-3% 38%
Republikaner 0-3% 38%
Republikaner 3-6% 38%
Republikaner 6-9% 38%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 15%+
31%
Demokrat 12-15%
35%
Demokrat 9-12%
30%
Demokrat 6-9%
29%
Demokrat 3-6%
30%
Demokrat 0-3%
38%
Republikaner 0-3%
38%
Republikaner 3-6%
38%
Republikaner 6-9%
38%
Republikaner 9 %+
32%
Demokrat 0-3% 38%
Republikaner 0-3% 38%
Republikaner 3-6% 38%
Republikaner 6-9% 38%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 15%+
$0 Vol.
31%
Demokrat 12-15%
$0 Vol.
35%
Demokrat 9-12%
$0 Vol.
30%
Demokrat 6-9%
$0 Vol.
29%
Demokrat 3-6%
$0 Vol.
30%
Demokrat 0-3%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republikaner 0-3%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republikaner 3-6%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republikaner 6-9%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republikaner 9 %+
$0 Vol.
32%
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Washington’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the tightest House races heading into the November general election, with incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez facing Republican state Sen. John Braun after both advanced from the August top-two primary. The swing district’s recent narrow Democratic holds, combined with Braun’s Trump endorsement and strong primary performance, have kept polling averages nearly even and produced similar implied probabilities across multiple victory-margin buckets. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the balance between Perez’s incumbency and fundraising advantages and Braun’s appeal in a district that leaned Republican in the prior presidential election. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling, candidate debates, or national momentum shifts could quickly widen or narrow the expected margin.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Washington’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the tightest House races heading into the November general election, with incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez facing Republican state Sen. John Braun after both advanced from the August top-two primary. The swing district’s recent narrow Democratic holds, combined with Braun’s Trump endorsement and strong primary performance, have kept polling averages nearly even and produced similar implied probabilities across multiple victory-margin buckets. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the balance between Perez’s incumbency and fundraising advantages and Braun’s appeal in a district that leaned Republican in the prior presidential election. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling, candidate debates, or national momentum shifts could quickly widen or narrow the expected margin.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Washington’s 3rd congressional district remains one of the tightest House races heading into the November general election, with incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez facing Republican state Sen. John Braun after both advanced from the August top-two primary. The swing district’s recent narrow Democratic holds, combined with Braun’s Trump endorsement and strong primary performance, have kept polling averages nearly even and produced similar implied probabilities across multiple victory-margin buckets. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the balance between Perez’s incumbency and fundraising advantages and Braun’s appeal in a district that leaned Republican in the prior presidential election. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling, candidate debates, or national momentum shifts could quickly widen or narrow the expected margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
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